NASCAR at Bristol odds, key stats, bets to consider: Finding value in matchup props

After a weekend in Texas, NASCAR heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the eighth race of the 2019 Cup Series season.

Sunday’s 500-lap Food City 500 marks the next race on a half-mile monitor this season, but Bristol’s unique concrete design with exorbitant banking is more similar to Dover’s one-mile track than Martinsville. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott have graced victory lane the past three races in Dover.
Busch is currently Sunday’s race favored at 5/2 chances at the Westgate SuperBook, with Harvick and Elliott priced at 12/1 and 14/1, respectively. Busch, who has finished in the top 10 in each of NASCAR’s seven races this year, leads active drivers with seven wins at Bristol. In total, Busch has recorded 10 top-five and 15 top-10 finishes in 27 starts at the monitor.
Even though Busch is hot this season, Harvick isn’t, particularly with his lofty standards. He’s led only 133 laps through seven races — and he has led laps in only two races. He has led only 22 laps at Bristol over the previous four races there but has finished within the top 10 in each.
Considering the stiff betting matchups oddsmakers have Harvick in –from Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Kyle Larson — it’s hard to trust Harvick with the rules package used this week.
Recent results, rules package In Bristol, the Cup Series will operate the 2019 rules bundle tailored for short paths (less than 1.33 miles) and street courses. A 1.17-inch tapered spacer will be utilized, with motors expected to create about 750 horsepower. No aero ducts will be used. This weekend’s configuration of the 2019 rules package is going to be utilized at 14 events in total this year. The 1.17-inch tapered spacer was first used this season at 1-mile ISM Raceway on March 10 at Phoenix in a race won by Kyle Busch.
Recent Bristol winners
2018 Fall: Kurt Busch
2018 Spring: Kyle Busch
2017 Fall: Kyle Busch
2017 Spring: Jimmie Johnson
Recent Dover winners
2018 Fall: Chase Elliott
2018 Spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 Fall: Kyle Busch
2017 Spring: Jimmie Johnson
MORE: Chances to win NASCAR Cup Series championship Curious to win 2019 Food City 500 at Bristol
Odds provided by Westgate
Kyle BUSCH 5/2
Kyle LARSON 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Kevin HARVICK 12/1
Ryan BLANEY 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Erik JONES 14/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Martin TRUEX JR 14/1
Clint BOWYER 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 25/1
Alex BOWMAN 60/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 1000/1
David RAGAN 5000/1
FIELD (others) 1000/1
Notable driver matchups, props for NASCAR in Bristol
Kyle BUSCH -180
Kyle LARSON +150
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK +105
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Denny HAMLIN -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Erik JONES -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Win Group A
Kyle LARSON +220
Joey LOGANO +250
Kevin HARVICK +300
Win Group B
Ryan BLANEY +225
Denny HAMLIN +265
Erik JONES +260
Kurt BUSCH +265
NASCAR at Bristol bets to consider Aric Almirola (+120) over Clint Bowyer
When Sunday’s rules package was last used at, Almirola ended fourth and led 26 laps at Phoenix. Bowyer had been 11th and had a slower car than Almirola in 2 of those three practice sessions, in addition to qualifying. During seven races in 2019, Almirola has six top 10s and is currently in fifth place in the points standings.
Ryan Blaney (-110) over Kevin Harvick
Blaney is one of three drivers using top-fives at both Phoenix and Martinsville using this rules package. He led a race-high 121 laps final autumn at Bristol before completing seventh, and before that led 100 laps last spring. Harvick simply is not up to speed with the principles package to begin the season. We also enjoy Blaney in a matchup with Denny Hamlin.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Austin Dillon
These motorists are 1-1 straight up using this rules package this year, but the advantage goes into Suarez, dependent on his career results at Bristol and Dover. Suarez has a 15.5 average finish at Bristol and a 6.8 average finish at Dover, in comparison to Dillon’s 17.2 at Bristol and 20.9 in Dover.
NASCAR at Bristol race info Time: 1 p.m. CT
TV: FS1, 12:30 p.m. CT
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 266.5 kilometers (500 Laps); Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 125),
Phase 2 (Ends on Lap 250), Final Phase (Ends on Lap 500)
Track Size: 0.533-miles
Banking: 24-28 degrees 2018 Winner: Kyle Busch
Just 3 times in the past twenty years has a Bristol winner gone on to win this season’s Cup Series title. All 3 instances, the Bristol Victory Lane trip came in the spring race. And three of those drivers are entered in this weekend’s Food City 500 — Brad Keselowski (2012), Jimmie Johnson (2010) and Kurt Busch (2004).

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