Fundamental to assessing value in any betting event is understanding the implied probability that is reflected in the offered odds. Essentially you want to wager odds that have a lower implied likelihood than your own personal assessed probability of that particular result happening.
For instance, let us say that West Coast are 1.60 to win at home against Collingwood in the AFL. The implied probability in such odds is approximately 62.5%. However, you’ve assessed that West Coast are a 70% chance of winning the game, meaning that they should be odds of 1.42. If you have done your homework correctly along with your assessment is true, you’ve found a value bet.
Thinking in these terms, having it almost become second nature is truly key to long-term betting success. If you want to comprehend the character of value, you first have to start thinking concerning probability.
If want to learn how to do it yourself, read this article on how to numerical chances.
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